On Your Mark, Get Set

Just getting to the Olympics can be half the battle

Feb 07, 2022

The Olympic Games are the pinnacle of sporting, when every nation sends their best to compete. But what happens when a particular country is really, really good at a particular sport? Sometimes qualifying for the Olympics is the hardest part of an athlete’s journey to gold.

In the US it is notoriously hard to made the swim team, where only two swimmers qualify per event - often when America could have swept the podium. Kenya has so many good distance runners they left a world champion off their Tokyo team. Same in neighboring Ethiopia. Jamaican women swept the 100m podium last summer.

Even this newsletter’s favorite sport CURLING! - also the sport you are most likely to think you could win gold in - is not nearly as easy as you think. In Canada, just getting into the qualifying tournament, known as Roar of the Rings, is an ordeal.

But nothing can compare to the Dutch speed skating Olympic trials - Olympisch Kwalificatietoernooi. Speed skating is the Dutch national sport; there is a 3-part documentary about two skaters who are dating. They have the most medals all time - by a long shot - and have won the most at every Games since 1998, including a whopping 23 out of 36 in Sochi. The Dutch take speed skating very seriously.

Which explains the craziness that is The Matrix, an algorithm designed by a University of Groningen econometrics professor. The complex Olympic tournament rules, and the Dutch dominance in so many disciplines means picking the optimal team to win the most overall medals isn’t easy. That’s where de matrix comes in. It analyzes past race results to predict which Olympic events the Netherlands has the best chance to medal in. Then coaches fill the roster based on qualifying results in that predicted order, not necessarily selecting the fastest athletes. That’s why Dai Dai N’tab, who finished second in the 500m, got left off the team - he isn’t a strong contender in any other event the Dutch want to medal in.

So next time you’re wondering how a skier from Ghana ended up at the Olympics, think about all those Norwegians who didn’t make the cut.

What You Missed Last Night

(Reminder: How to Watch)

The Men’s Downhill was rescheduled for 11pm EST last night, so if you missed it live be sure to catch the replay.

What To Watch Today

(Reminder: How to Watch)

The morning has CURLING! Mixed Doubles semifinals with ITA-SWE and NOR-GBR, plus medals in Short Track Speed Skating and the Ski Jump Team Event.

The evening highlights are Women’s Ski Big Air (a new event) and Men’s Super G Skiing, but the MUST SEE is USA vs Canada in Women’s Hockey. This is one of the best rivalries in sports, and almost certainly a Gold Medal preview match.